V-Lab
RTX Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 3rd, 2026
1 Day
13.59
decreased by 0.40
1 Week
14.03
increased by 0.04
1 Month
14.75
increased by 0.76
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 31, 2026 at 11:01 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 448 trading days (~1.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0258 | 6.79*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0474 | 11.80*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9510 | 223.08*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0018 | -1.91* |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
448 days
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