V-Lab
RTX Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
12.54
decreased by 0.04
1 Week
11.74
decreased by 0.84
1 Month
12.02
decreased by 0.56
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 11:05 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 376 trading days (~1.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0217 | 6.69*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0474 | 11.76*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9508 | 219.67*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.0049 | -1.83* |
| γ2 | 0.0065 | 1.21 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
376 days
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