V-Lab
RTX Corp Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
10.45
1 Week
11.03
1 Month
12.88
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 10, 2026 at 09:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 168% more after negative returns
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0628 | 7.37*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0249 | 20.99*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9541 | 1,079.26*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0420 | 24.14*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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