V-Lab
Ralph Lauren Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
79.96
increased by 4.05
1 Week
77.23
increased by 1.32
1 Month
82.81
increased by 6.90
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 10:24 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 12, 1997 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 623 trading days (~2.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0880 | 8.14*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0663 | 13.93*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9326 | 194.98*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -0.0049 | -0.81 |
| γ2 | 0.0107 | 0.95 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
623 days
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