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Ralph Lauren Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026

1 Day

61.45

increased by 2.40

1 Week

63.54

increased by 4.49

1 Month

64.19

increased by 5.14

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 11:15 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/01/2024

to

10/01/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Ralph Lauren Corp ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 12, 1997 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 231049 trading days (~916.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~231049 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.2248
9.07***
αARCH0.0675
14.35***
βGARCH0.9325
198.54***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ10.0105
0.57
γ2-0.0134
-0.37

1.000

Persistence

231049d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2248
9.07***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0675
14.35***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9325
198.54***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ10.0105
0.57
γ2-0.0134
-0.37

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

231049 days