V-Lab
Ralph Lauren Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
61.45
increased by 2.40
1 Week
63.54
increased by 4.49
1 Month
64.19
increased by 5.14
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 11:15 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 12, 1997 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 231049 trading days (~916.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~231049 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2248 | 9.07*** |
| αARCH | 0.0675 | 14.35*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9325 | 198.54*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 0.0105 | 0.57 |
| γ2 | -0.0134 | -0.37 |
1.000
Persistence231049d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2248 | 9.07*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0675 | 14.35*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9325 | 198.54*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 0.0105 | 0.57 |
| γ2 | -0.0134 | -0.37 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
231049 days
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