Ralph Lauren Corp Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, November 12th, 2026
1 Day
73.84
increased by 1.87
1 Week
73.36
increased by 1.39
1 Month
65.56
decreased by 6.41
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, November 11, 2026 at 10:43 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 12, 1997 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 366 trading days (~1.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 101% more after negative returns
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~366 daysAsymmetry: Illiquidity rises 101% more after negative returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.5186 | 2.15** |
| αARCH | 0.0390 | 6.04*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9394 | 214.29*** |
| γleverage | 0.0394 | 3.72*** |
0.998
Persistence366d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5186 | 2.15** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0390 | 6.04*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9394 | 214.29*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0394 | 3.72*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
366 days
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