Real REMAX Group Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, November 6th, 2026
1 Day
4,796.40
increased by 321.62
1 Week
4,344.89
decreased by 129.89
1 Month
4,281.93
decreased by 192.85
Analysis last updated: Thursday, November 5, 2026 at 10:39 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 16, 2021 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 34657 trading days (~137.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~34657 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0214 | 5.63*** |
| αARCH | 0.1374 | 4.26*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8626 | 26.77*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.2220 | -1.08 |
1.000
Persistence34657d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0214 | 5.63*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1374 | 4.26*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8626 | 26.77*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.2220 | -1.08 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
34657 days
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