Real REMAX Group Inc ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, November 6th, 2026
1 Day
4,875.76
1 Week
4,486.15
1 Month
4,358.86
Analysis last updated: Thursday, November 5, 2026 at 10:39 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 16, 2021 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 776 trading days (~3.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 111 | |
| αARCH | 0.1212 | 10.06*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8730 | 76.61*** |
| γleverage | 0.0099 | 1.66* |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0001 | 0.00 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0192 | 2.64*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9802 | 40.39*** |
0.999
Persistence776d
Half-lifeILLIQ-MFMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 111 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1212 | 10.06*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8730 | 76.61*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0099 | 1.66* |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0001 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0192 | 2.64*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9802 | 40.39*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
776 days
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