Skip to main content
V-Lab

Quercus Tfi Sa Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

66,285.17

increased by 1,363.94

1 Week

86,332.80

increased by 21,411.57

1 Month

64,965.66

increased by 44.43

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 04:25 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Quercus Tfi Sa ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 11, 2008 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 303 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

57.2005
4.08***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3678
9.58***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6299
16.66***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-0.2045
-0.20
γ21.9458
1.31
γ3-16.3804
-5.37***
γ428.2466
3.48***
γ50.4382
0.04
γ6-32.0807
-2.42**
γ724.2427
3.09***
γ8-8.6319
-2.23**
γ9-0.2540
-0.09
γ109.3036
2.90***

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

303 days