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Quercus Tfi Sa Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

44,129.63

decreased by 7,607.13

1 Week

50,153.85

decreased by 1,582.91

1 Month

77,158.76

increased by 25,422.00

Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 16, 2026 at 12:26 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Quercus Tfi Sa ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 11, 2008 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 34 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

11.9238
1.75*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3499
5.84***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6300
15.80***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-0.6794
-0.53
γ22.5471
1.42
γ3-17.4828
-5.39***
γ431.2716
3.67***
γ5-2.8511
-0.24
γ6-30.9872
-2.49**
γ724.9456
3.22***
γ8-9.6636
-2.41**
γ90.6660
0.21
γ108.4050
1.98**

Persistence:

0.980

Half-life:

34 days