V-Lab
Quercus Tfi Sa Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
66,285.17
increased by 1,363.94
1 Week
86,332.80
increased by 21,411.57
1 Month
64,965.66
increased by 44.43
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 04:25 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 11, 2008 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 303 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 57.2005 | 4.08*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3678 | 9.58*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6299 | 16.66*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.2045 | -0.20 |
| γ2 | 1.9458 | 1.31 |
| γ3 | -16.3804 | -5.37*** |
| γ4 | 28.2466 | 3.48*** |
| γ5 | 0.4382 | 0.04 |
| γ6 | -32.0807 | -2.42** |
| γ7 | 24.2427 | 3.09*** |
| γ8 | -8.6319 | -2.23** |
| γ9 | -0.2540 | -0.09 |
| γ10 | 9.3036 | 2.90*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
303 days
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