V-Lab
Quercus Tfi Sa Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
44,129.63
decreased by 7,607.13
1 Week
50,153.85
decreased by 1,582.91
1 Month
77,158.76
increased by 25,422.00
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 16, 2026 at 12:26 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 11, 2008 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 34 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 11.9238 | 1.75* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3499 | 5.84*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6300 | 15.80*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.6794 | -0.53 |
| γ2 | 2.5471 | 1.42 |
| γ3 | -17.4828 | -5.39*** |
| γ4 | 31.2716 | 3.67*** |
| γ5 | -2.8511 | -0.24 |
| γ6 | -30.9872 | -2.49** |
| γ7 | 24.9456 | 3.22*** |
| γ8 | -9.6636 | -2.41** |
| γ9 | 0.6660 | 0.21 |
| γ10 | 8.4050 | 1.98** |
Persistence:
0.980
Half-life:
34 days
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