Quercus Tfi Sa Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
53,086.33
1 Week
51,110.80
1 Month
45,601.19
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 08:37 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 11, 2008 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): illiquidity shocks do not decay and the long-run level is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.0000 | 0.00 |
| αARCH | 0.0495 | 0.31 |
| βGARCH | 0.9715 | 44.51*** |
| γleverage | -0.0420 | -0.26 |
1.000
Persistence-
Half-lifeILLIQ-AMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0495 | 0.31 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9715 | 44.51*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0420 | -0.26 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
-
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