V-Lab
Post And Telecommunication Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
9,553.13
increased by 5,671.49
1 Week
5,699.35
increased by 1,817.71
1 Month
3,885.23
increased by 3.59
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 08:25 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 23, 2008 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 10045 trading days (~39.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1237 | 2.97*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1679 | 1.07 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8320 | 5.31*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -2.9503 | -0.78 |
| γ2 | 6.1278 | 1.16 |
| γ3 | -5.5726 | -2.29** |
| γ4 | 3.4582 | 2.71*** |
| γ5 | -1.4107 | -1.99** |
| γ6 | -0.1620 | -0.23 |
| γ7 | 0.9653 | 1.27 |
| γ8 | -0.3367 | -0.37 |
| γ9 | -0.5508 | -0.47 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
10045 days
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