V-Lab
Post And Telecommunication Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, September 18th, 2026
1 Day
5,848.54
1 Week
6,079.95
1 Month
5,992.41
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 09:24 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 23, 2008 to Sep 15, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1610 | 1.59 |
| αARCH | 0.0605 | 2.42** |
| βGARCH | 0.9265 | 63.79*** |
| γleverage | 0.0261 | 0.93 |
1.000
Persistence1386294d
Half-lifeILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1610 | 1.59 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0605 | 2.42** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9265 | 63.79*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0261 | 0.93 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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