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Post And Telecommunication ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026

1 Day

7,791.07

increased by 4,519.22

1 Week

4,715.44

increased by 1,443.59

1 Month

3,314.04

increased by 42.19

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 08:25 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Post And Telecommunication ILLIQ-MFMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 23, 2008 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 634 trading days (~2.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.

μ

ILLIQ-MFMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1313
0.73
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8273
34.57***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0806
0.25
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

10.0000
0.67
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0268
0.96
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9732
93.37***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

634 days