V-Lab
Post And Telecommunication ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
7,791.07
1 Week
4,715.44
1 Month
3,314.04
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 08:25 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 23, 2008 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 634 trading days (~2.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1313 | 0.73 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8273 | 34.57*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0806 | 0.25 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.67 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0268 | 0.96 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9732 | 93.37*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
634 days
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