Paycom Software Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026
1 Day
120.07
decreased by 6.82
1 Week
123.96
decreased by 2.93
1 Month
117.87
decreased by 9.02
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 28, 2026 at 10:22 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 15, 2014 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 37 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.4141 | 9.54*** |
| αARCH | 0.0824 | 9.33*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8989 | 82.28*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0227 | 5.22*** |
0.981
Persistence37d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4141 | 9.54*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0824 | 9.33*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8989 | 82.28*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0227 | 5.22*** |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
37 days
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