V-Lab
Paycom Software Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026
1 Day
120.34
decreased by 3.27
1 Week
125.68
increased by 2.07
1 Month
138.04
increased by 14.43
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 15, 2026 at 09:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 15, 2014 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 37 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.4292 | 9.60*** |
| αARCH | 0.0821 | 9.36*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8992 | 81.97*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0237 | 5.50*** |
0.981
Persistence37d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4292 | 9.60*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0821 | 9.36*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8992 | 81.97*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0237 | 5.50*** |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
37 days
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