Paycom Software Inc Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026
1 Day
105.42
decreased by 6.32
1 Week
102.94
decreased by 8.80
1 Month
103.16
decreased by 8.58
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 28, 2026 at 10:22 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 15, 2014 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 113 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 124% more after negative returns
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~113 daysAsymmetry: Illiquidity rises 124% more after negative returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.4946 | 3.25*** |
| αARCH | 0.0483 | 4.84*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9157 | 126.99*** |
| γleverage | 0.0597 | 2.88*** |
0.994
Persistence113d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4946 | 3.25*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0483 | 4.84*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9157 | 126.99*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0597 | 2.88*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
113 days
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