V-Lab
Paycom Software Inc Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026
1 Day
114.47
decreased by 5.16
1 Week
124.74
increased by 5.11
1 Month
129.61
increased by 9.98
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 15, 2026 at 09:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 15, 2014 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 115 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 124% more after negative returns
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~115 daysAsymmetry: Illiquidity rises 124% more after negative returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.4821 | 3.21*** |
| αARCH | 0.0480 | 4.82*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9161 | 128.73*** |
| γleverage | 0.0597 | 2.90*** |
0.994
Persistence115d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4821 | 3.21*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0480 | 4.82*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9161 | 128.73*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0597 | 2.90*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
115 days
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