V-Lab
Pan African Resources PLC Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
4,680.89
decreased by 345.30
1 Week
5,425.43
increased by 399.24
1 Month
5,849.43
increased by 823.24
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 12, 2026 at 08:24 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 4, 2007 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1634 trading days (~6.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 18.1791 | 2.15** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1343 | 9.17*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8653 | 57.63*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 0.0441 | 3.99*** |
| γ2 | -0.0829 | -3.93*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1634 days
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