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Pan African Resources PLC Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026

1 Day

4,680.89

decreased by 345.30

1 Week

5,425.43

increased by 399.24

1 Month

5,849.43

increased by 823.24

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 12, 2026 at 08:24 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Pan African Resources PLC ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 4, 2007 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1634 trading days (~6.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

18.1791
2.15**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1343
9.17***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8653
57.63***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ10.0441
3.99***
γ2-0.0829
-3.93***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1634 days