V-Lab
Pan African Resources PLC Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
4,902.87
decreased by 148.47
1 Week
5,171.54
increased by 120.20
1 Month
5,783.07
increased by 731.73
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 12, 2026 at 08:24 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 4, 2007 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 677 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: illiquidity responds almost entirely to negative returns
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.40 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0089 | 4.33*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9657 | 262.00*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0487 | 8.74*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
677 days
Other Pan African Resources PLC Analyses
Other Asymmetric ILLIQ Analyses on International Equities