V-Lab
Pan African Resources PLC ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
5,083.56
1 Week
5,801.83
1 Month
6,230.51
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 12, 2026 at 08:24 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 4, 2007 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 14 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 14 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1253 | 3.99*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8876 | 273.28*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1253 | -4.11*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.01 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.01 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9963 | 495.69*** |
Persistence:
0.950
Half-life:
14 days
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