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Orion Group Holdings Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, August 20th, 2026

1 Day

5,581.94

decreased by 520.17

1 Week

5,817.46

decreased by 284.65

1 Month

5,161.50

decreased by 940.61

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 09:46 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Orion Group Holdings Inc ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 20, 2007 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 3080 trading days (~12.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.0350
1.85*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1381
15.86***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8617
98.38***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0208
-3.69***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

3080 days