V-Lab
Orion Group Holdings Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, August 20th, 2026
1 Day
5,581.94
decreased by 520.17
1 Week
5,817.46
decreased by 284.65
1 Month
5,161.50
decreased by 940.61
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 09:46 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 20, 2007 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 3080 trading days (~12.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.0350 | 1.85* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1381 | 15.86*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8617 | 98.38*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0208 | -3.69*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
3080 days
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