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Orion Group Holdings Inc Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, August 20th, 2026

1 Day

5,423.95

decreased by 471.74

1 Week

5,543.39

decreased by 352.30

1 Month

5,004.54

decreased by 891.15

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 09:46 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Orion Group Holdings Inc ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 20, 2007 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): illiquidity shocks do not decay and the long-run level is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 77% more after negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
0.62
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0754
19.81***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8955
385.01***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0582
10.48***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

-