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Bleichroeder Acquisition Corp II Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

647.70

decreased by 126.59

1 Week

968.68

increased by 194.39

1 Month

2,998.67

increased by 2,224.38

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 09:33 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Bleichroeder Acquisition Corp II ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 8, 2026 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 693147 trading days (~2750.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
0.01
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3444
0.15
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8240
4.31***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.3367
-0.14

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

693147 days