V-Lab
Bleichroeder Acquisition Corp II Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
321.96
increased by 0.90
1 Week
485.76
increased by 164.70
1 Month
3,801.44
increased by 3,480.38
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 09:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 8, 2026 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1554 trading days (~6.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0167 | 0.05 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9996 | 0.27 |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -2,182.6290 | -0.21 |
| γ2 | 2,976.6750 | 0.97 |
| γ3 | -1,127.9950 | -0.61 |
| γ4 | 554.5545 | 0.40 |
| γ5 | -199.0943 | -0.23 |
| γ6 | -374.8192 | -0.48 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1554 days
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