V-Lab
Bleichroeder Acquisition Corp II Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
8,962.76
increased by 24.50
1 Week
8,611.59
decreased by 326.67
1 Month
6,806.45
decreased by 2,131.81
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 09:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 8, 2026 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 2318 trading days (~9.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0156 | 0.02 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9997 | 0.18 |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -2,580.1110 | -0.15 |
| γ2 | 3,412.6070 | 0.79 |
| γ3 | -1,125.1430 | -0.40 |
| γ4 | 474.9176 | 0.21 |
| γ5 | -159.8907 | -0.10 |
| γ6 | -45.9821 | -0.04 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
2318 days
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