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V-Lab

Bleichroeder Acquisition Corp II Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

321.96

increased by 0.90

1 Week

485.76

increased by 164.70

1 Month

3,801.44

increased by 3,480.38

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 09:33 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Bleichroeder Acquisition Corp II ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 8, 2026 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1554 trading days (~6.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0167
0.05
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9996
0.27
γi Spline Coefficients
K=6
γ1-2,182.6290
-0.21
γ22,976.6750
0.97
γ3-1,127.9950
-0.61
γ4554.5545
0.40
γ5-199.0943
-0.23
γ6-374.8192
-0.48

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1554 days