V-Lab
Orion Group Holdings Inc ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, August 20th, 2026
1 Day
5,981.05
1 Week
6,178.65
1 Month
5,550.28
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 09:46 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 20, 2007 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 475 trading days (~1.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1255 | 12.79*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8742 | 348.55*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0022 | -0.14 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 1.41 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.01 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9999 | 974.60*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
475 days
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