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Orion Group Holdings Inc ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis

Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026

1 Day

5,244.40

increased by 168.68

1 Week

5,275.12

increased by 199.40

1 Month

5,690.26

increased by 614.54

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 11:28 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Orion Group Holdings Inc ILLIQ-MFMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's liquidity

Liquidity Forecast

How liquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 20, 2007 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 409 trading days (~1.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.

μ

ILLIQ-MFMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1256
79.30***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8747
600.35***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0041
-3.75***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

45,779.8300

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

409 days