Orion Group Holdings Inc ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026
1 Day
5,244.40
1 Week
5,275.12
1 Month
5,690.26
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 11:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 20, 2007 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 409 trading days (~1.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1256 | 79.30*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8747 | 600.35*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0041 | -3.75*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 45,779.8300 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
409 days
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