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Orion Group Holdings Inc ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, August 20th, 2026

1 Day

5,981.05

decreased by 469.67

1 Week

6,178.65

decreased by 272.07

1 Month

5,550.28

decreased by 900.44

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 09:46 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Orion Group Holdings Inc ILLIQ-MFMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 20, 2007 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 475 trading days (~1.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.

μ

ILLIQ-MFMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

126
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1255
12.79***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8742
348.55***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0022
-0.14
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

10.0000
1.41
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0000
0.01
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9999
974.60***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

475 days