V-Lab
Oculis Holding AG Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, August 20th, 2026
1 Day
7,245.47
increased by 1,135.09
1 Week
6,341.14
increased by 230.76
1 Month
6,941.26
increased by 830.88
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 09:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 16, 2021 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 8 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4635 | 2.27** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2754 | 5.62*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6394 | 11.36*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -38.7825 | -2.64*** |
| γ2 | 55.9932 | 2.37** |
| γ3 | -30.5230 | -1.87* |
| γ4 | 30.3945 | 1.96* |
| γ5 | -28.9374 | -2.32** |
| γ6 | 14.8102 | 2.06** |
| γ7 | -2.7616 | -0.50 |
| γ8 | 0.1823 | 0.03 |
| γ9 | -5.3589 | -1.06 |
| γ10 | 17.5037 | 2.87*** |
Persistence:
0.915
Half-life:
8 days
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