V-Lab
Oculis Holding AG Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, August 20th, 2026
1 Day
5,121.82
increased by 248.14
1 Week
4,977.55
increased by 103.87
1 Month
5,019.13
increased by 145.45
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 09:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 16, 2021 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): illiquidity shocks do not decay and the long-run level is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.42 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0650 | 3.48*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9446 | 222.05*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0191 | -0.76 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
-
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