V-Lab
Oculis Holding AG ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, August 20th, 2026
1 Day
5,157.12
1 Week
4,752.92
1 Month
6,259.17
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 09:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 16, 2021 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 55 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 55 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 81 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1822 | 4.51*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8363 | 112.88*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0621 | -0.89 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0086 | 11.53*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9848 | 336.10*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
55 days
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