V-Lab
Our Bond Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
154,155.40
decreased by 39,131.40
1 Week
251,009.22
increased by 57,722.42
1 Month
257,734.38
increased by 64,447.58
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 28, 2026 at 09:51 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 4, 2026 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3572 | 4.87*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3201 | 4.17*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5050 | 4.51*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.3014 | 0.05 |
Persistence:
0.825
Half-life:
4 days
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