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V-Lab
V-Lab

Our Bond Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

551,821.70

increased by 14,285.50

1 Week

468,148.02

decreased by 69,388.18

1 Month

283,221.98

decreased by 254,314.22

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 10:43 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Our Bond Inc ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 4, 2026 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.3978
5.20***
αARCH0.3482
4.73***
βGARCH0.4903
4.57***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ11.3708
0.35

0.838

Persistence

4d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.3978
5.20***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3482
4.73***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.4903
4.57***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ11.3708
0.35

Persistence:

0.838

Half-life:

4 days