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V-Lab

Our Bond Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026

1 Day

708,310.70

increased by 193,131.40

1 Week

709,880.78

increased by 194,701.48

1 Month

571,938.81

increased by 56,759.51

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 09:31 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/30/2024

to

10/30/2026

6M ·

All

graph of Our Bond Inc ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 4, 2026 to Oct 30, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.2868
5.83***
αARCH0.3137
4.52***
βGARCH0.4930
4.39***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ13.7287
1.50

0.807

Persistence

3d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2868
5.83***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3137
4.52***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.4930
4.39***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ13.7287
1.50

Persistence:

0.807

Half-life:

3 days