Our Bond Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026
1 Day
318,318.90
increased by 19,413.20
1 Week
402,339.06
increased by 103,433.36
1 Month
369,320.85
increased by 70,415.15
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 12:35 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 4, 2026 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.3558 | 5.33*** |
| αARCH | 0.3380 | 4.81*** |
| βGARCH | 0.4756 | 4.40*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 1.3601 | 0.45 |
0.814
Persistence3d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3558 | 5.33*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3380 | 4.81*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4756 | 4.40*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 1.3601 | 0.45 |
Persistence:
0.814
Half-life:
3 days
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