Our Bond Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026
1 Day
708,310.70
increased by 193,131.40
1 Week
709,880.78
increased by 194,701.48
1 Month
571,938.81
increased by 56,759.51
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 09:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 4, 2026 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2868 | 5.83*** |
| αARCH | 0.3137 | 4.52*** |
| βGARCH | 0.4930 | 4.39*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 3.7287 | 1.50 |
0.807
Persistence3d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2868 | 5.83*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3137 | 4.52*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4930 | 4.39*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 3.7287 | 1.50 |
Persistence:
0.807
Half-life:
3 days
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