V-Lab
Our Bond Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
228,320.80
decreased by 43,085.40
1 Week
197,910.04
decreased by 73,496.16
1 Month
187,970.65
decreased by 83,435.55
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 10:00 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 4, 2026 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3331 | 4.56*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3488 | 4.47*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4601 | 4.37*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -3.1575 | -0.40 |
Persistence:
0.809
Half-life:
3 days
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