Skip to main content
V-Lab

Our Bond Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026

1 Day

154,155.40

decreased by 39,131.40

1 Week

251,009.22

increased by 57,722.42

1 Month

257,734.38

increased by 64,447.58

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 28, 2026 at 09:51 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Our Bond Inc ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 4, 2026 to Aug 28, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.3572
4.87***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3201
4.17***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5050
4.51***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.3014
0.05

Persistence:

0.825

Half-life:

4 days