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V-Lab
V-Lab

Our Bond Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026

1 Day

318,318.90

increased by 19,413.20

1 Week

402,339.06

increased by 103,433.36

1 Month

369,320.85

increased by 70,415.15

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 12:35 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/09/2024

to

10/09/2026

6M ·

All

graph of Our Bond Inc ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 4, 2026 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.3558
5.33***
αARCH0.3380
4.81***
βGARCH0.4756
4.40***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ11.3601
0.45

0.814

Persistence

3d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.3558
5.33***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3380
4.81***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.4756
4.40***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ11.3601
0.45

Persistence:

0.814

Half-life:

3 days