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V-Lab

Our Bond Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

228,320.80

decreased by 43,085.40

1 Week

197,910.04

decreased by 73,496.16

1 Month

187,970.65

decreased by 83,435.55

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 10:00 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Our Bond Inc ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 4, 2026 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.3331
4.56***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3488
4.47***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.4601
4.37***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-3.1575
-0.40

Persistence:

0.809

Half-life:

3 days