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Our Bond Inc Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026

1 Day

543,147.40

increased by 76,265.40

1 Week

584,218.20

increased by 117,336.20

1 Month

517,276.38

increased by 50,394.38

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 09:31 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/30/2024

to

10/30/2026

6M ·

All

graph of Our Bond Inc ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 4, 2026 to Oct 30, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~1386294 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst5.0000
0.00
αARCH0.1907
1.38
βGARCH0.7723
14.65***
γleverage0.0738
0.32

1.000

Persistence

1386294d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
0.00
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1907
1.38
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7723
14.65***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0738
0.32

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days