V-Lab
Our Bond Inc Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
241,536.50
decreased by 23,269.90
1 Week
209,686.04
decreased by 55,120.36
1 Month
183,597.89
decreased by 81,208.51
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 10:00 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 4, 2026 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): illiquidity shocks do not decay and the long-run level is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2156 | 5.80*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7513 | 43.98*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0662 | 1.02 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
-
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