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Our Bond Inc Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026

1 Day

204,674.10

decreased by 53,027.50

1 Week

294,665.38

increased by 36,963.78

1 Month

269,508.97

increased by 11,807.37

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 28, 2026 at 09:51 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Our Bond Inc ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 4, 2026 to Aug 28, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
0.00
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2171
1.47
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7592
11.53***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0474
0.19

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days