V-Lab
Our Bond Inc Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
204,674.10
decreased by 53,027.50
1 Week
294,665.38
increased by 36,963.78
1 Month
269,508.97
increased by 11,807.37
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 28, 2026 at 09:51 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 4, 2026 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2171 | 1.47 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7592 | 11.53*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0474 | 0.19 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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