Our Bond Inc ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026
1 Day
361,555.00
1 Week
352,121.88
1 Month
288,365.16
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 12:35 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 4, 2026 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 21 | |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.59 |
| βGARCH | 0.9083 | 8.74*** |
| γleverage | 0.0000 | -1.00 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0995 | 0.00 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 1.0000 | 40.93*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0000 | 0.02 |
0.908
Persistence7d
Half-lifeILLIQ-MFMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.59 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9083 | 8.74*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0000 | -1.00 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0995 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 1.0000 | 40.93*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.02 |
Persistence:
0.908
Half-life:
7 days
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