V-Lab
Our Bond Inc ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
21,143.19
1 Week
99,768.56
1 Month
122,103.07
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 28, 2026 at 09:51 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 4, 2026 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3351 | |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.2847 | |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0485 | |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.4550 | |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0009 | |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.2075 |
Persistence:
0.596
Half-life:
1 days
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