Zahrat Al Waha For Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Sunday, July 19th, 2026
1 Day
3,698.38
decreased by 26.67
1 Week
3,759.42
increased by 34.37
1 Month
6,462.52
increased by 2,737.47
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 08:46 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 22, 2017 to Jul 16, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 57 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2206 | 5.55*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1946 | 12.39*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7932 | 50.82*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0440 | 2.17** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
57 days
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