V-Lab
Racura Oncology Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
89,410.07
decreased by 21,669.03
1 Week
141,875.07
increased by 30,795.97
1 Month
128,005.39
increased by 16,926.29
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 10:12 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 13, 2016 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 10 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6367 | 3.58*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2378 | 6.23*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6969 | 17.64*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -3.3965 | -2.54** |
| γ2 | 5.5069 | 2.51** |
| γ3 | -6.5601 | -3.50*** |
| γ4 | 7.7281 | 4.49*** |
| γ5 | -2.8181 | -2.26** |
| γ6 | -0.6523 | -0.66 |
| γ7 | -0.3566 | -0.30 |
| γ8 | 0.0184 | 0.02 |
| γ9 | 2.0967 | 1.95* |
Persistence:
0.935
Half-life:
10 days
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