V-Lab
Racura Oncology Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, October 6th, 2026
1 Day
312,272.90
decreased by 54,878.30
1 Week
270,893.28
decreased by 96,257.92
1 Month
200,765.42
decreased by 166,385.78
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 6, 2026 at 06:09 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 13, 2016 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 10 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.6571 | 3.90*** |
| αARCH | 0.2345 | 6.13*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6965 | 17.09*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -2.9722 | -2.43** |
| γ2 | 4.7456 | 2.38** |
| γ3 | -5.9969 | -3.46*** |
| γ4 | 7.7328 | 4.59*** |
| γ5 | -3.3766 | -2.76*** |
| γ6 | -0.3887 | -0.45 |
| γ7 | -0.1259 | -0.12 |
| γ8 | -0.2840 | -0.23 |
| γ9 | 3.1143 | 2.55** |
0.931
Persistence10d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6571 | 3.90*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2345 | 6.13*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6965 | 17.09*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -2.9722 | -2.43** |
| γ2 | 4.7456 | 2.38** |
| γ3 | -5.9969 | -3.46*** |
| γ4 | 7.7328 | 4.59*** |
| γ5 | -3.3766 | -2.76*** |
| γ6 | -0.3887 | -0.45 |
| γ7 | -0.1259 | -0.12 |
| γ8 | -0.2840 | -0.23 |
| γ9 | 3.1143 | 2.55** |
Persistence:
0.931
Half-life:
10 days
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