Guangzhou Devotion Thermal Technology Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026
1 Day
158.39
decreased by 1.56
1 Week
159.17
decreased by 0.78
1 Month
172.49
increased by 12.54
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 08:09 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 10, 2012 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 34 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.8939 | 7.85*** |
| αARCH | 0.1666 | 6.44*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8132 | 33.63*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0120 | -2.14** |
0.980
Persistence34d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.8939 | 7.85*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1666 | 6.44*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8132 | 33.63*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0120 | -2.14** |
Persistence:
0.980
Half-life:
34 days
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