V-Lab
Guangzhou Devotion Thermal Technology Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
192.95
decreased by 25.93
1 Week
238.62
increased by 19.74
1 Month
214.73
decreased by 4.15
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 29, 2026 at 08:01 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 10, 2012 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 5415 trading days (~21.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0012 | 6.70*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2791 | 24.24*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7208 | 62.57*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0063 | -0.52 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
5415 days
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