V-Lab
Guangzhou Devotion Thermal Technology Co Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
168.43
decreased by 36.05
1 Week
202.46
decreased by 2.02
1 Month
177.99
decreased by 26.49
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 07:50 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 10, 2012 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 102 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 149% more after negative returns
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~102 daysAsymmetry: Illiquidity rises 149% more after negative returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.0000 | 3.04*** |
| αARCH | 0.1232 | 4.56*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7780 | 86.76*** |
| γleverage | 0.1841 | 3.34*** |
0.993
Persistence102d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 3.04*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1232 | 4.56*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7780 | 86.76*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1841 | 3.34*** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
102 days
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