V-Lab
Guangzhou Devotion Thermal Technology Co Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 31st, 2026
1 Day
167.29
decreased by 24.15
1 Week
206.48
increased by 15.04
1 Month
210.98
increased by 19.54
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 29, 2026 at 08:01 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 10, 2012 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 104 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 149% more after negative returns
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 3.03*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1237 | 4.57*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7774 | 86.42*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1844 | 3.34*** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
104 days
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