Manba Finance Limited Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
691.37
decreased by 68.50
1 Week
778.32
increased by 18.45
1 Month
812.47
increased by 52.60
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 12:43 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 30, 2024 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 12 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8440 | 5.69*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1550 | 3.60*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7905 | 13.85*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -1.3590 | -3.58*** |
Persistence:
0.946
Half-life:
12 days
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