Manba Finance Limited Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
859.19
increased by 82.88
1 Week
734.87
decreased by 41.44
1 Month
971.03
increased by 194.72
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 07:29 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 30, 2024 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 12 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8430 | 5.70*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1562 | 3.57*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7885 | 13.45*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -1.3336 | -3.31*** |
Persistence:
0.945
Half-life:
12 days
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