Ningxia Western Venture Industrial Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026
1 Day
626.17
decreased by 24.50
1 Week
630.52
decreased by 20.15
1 Month
505.62
decreased by 145.05
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 11, 2026 at 07:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 17, 1994 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 693147 trading days (~2750.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.5728 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3411 | |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6589 |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | 0.0399 | |
| γ2 | -0.1572 | |
| γ3 | 0.2857 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
693147 days
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