V-Lab
Ningxia Western Venture Industrial Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, September 1st, 2026
1 Day
410.32
decreased by 5.91
1 Week
413.73
decreased by 2.50
1 Month
391.93
decreased by 24.30
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 1, 2026 at 06:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 17, 1994 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 693147 trading days (~2750.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 19.0268 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3708 | |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6292 |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 0.0118 | |
| γ2 | -0.3401 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
693147 days
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