Ningxia Western Venture Industrial Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, October 21st, 2026
1 Day
349.75
increased by 37.33
1 Week
372.59
increased by 60.17
1 Month
350.46
increased by 38.04
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 06:31 PM UTC
Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 17, 1994 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.7961 | 5.50*** |
| αARCH | 0.3569 | 8.74*** |
| βGARCH | 0.5713 | 14.43*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.0424 | -0.78 |
| γ2 | 0.2178 | 2.22** |
| γ3 | -0.3459 | -2.77*** |
| γ4 | 0.2258 | 1.46 |
| γ5 | -0.0489 | -0.34 |
| γ6 | -0.0050 | -0.04 |
0.928
Persistence9d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.7961 | 5.50*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3569 | 8.74*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5713 | 14.43*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.0424 | -0.78 |
| γ2 | 0.2178 | 2.22** |
| γ3 | -0.3459 | -2.77*** |
| γ4 | 0.2258 | 1.46 |
| γ5 | -0.0489 | -0.34 |
| γ6 | -0.0050 | -0.04 |
Persistence:
0.928
Half-life:
9 days
Other Ningxia Western Venture Industrial Co Ltd Analyses
Other Spline ILLIQ Analyses on International Equities