V-Lab
First Capital Holdings Plc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
4,822.59
decreased by 357.18
1 Week
5,648.43
increased by 468.66
1 Month
6,885.90
increased by 1,706.13
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 16, 2026 at 01:38 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 22, 2010 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 115524 trading days (~458.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1774 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2177 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7823 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 2.8831 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | -5.7276 | 0.00 |
| γ3 | -0.9192 | 0.00 |
| γ4 | 10.0029 | 0.00 |
| γ5 | -8.1613 | 0.00 |
| γ6 | 0.2612 | 0.00 |
| γ7 | 3.0711 | 0.03 |
| γ8 | -1.9270 | 0.00 |
| γ9 | 0.7854 | 0.00 |
| γ10 | -0.2757 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
115524 days
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