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First Capital Holdings Plc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

4,822.59

decreased by 357.18

1 Week

5,648.43

increased by 468.66

1 Month

6,885.90

increased by 1,706.13

Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 16, 2026 at 01:38 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of First Capital Holdings Plc ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 22, 2010 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 115524 trading days (~458.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1774
0.00
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2177
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7823
0.00
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ12.8831
0.00
γ2-5.7276
0.00
γ3-0.9192
0.00
γ410.0029
0.00
γ5-8.1613
0.00
γ60.2612
0.00
γ73.0711
0.03
γ8-1.9270
0.00
γ90.7854
0.00
γ10-0.2757
0.00

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

115524 days