V-Lab
First Capital Holdings Plc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
9,215.97
decreased by 1,206.66
1 Week
7,615.94
decreased by 2,806.69
1 Month
11,375.61
increased by 952.98
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 08:17 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 22, 2010 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 77016 trading days (~305.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6344 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2142 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7858 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 2.0430 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | -5.4674 | 0.00 |
| γ3 | 5.0738 | 0.01 |
| γ4 | -1.5094 | -0.01 |
| γ5 | -1.3496 | -0.02 |
| γ6 | 2.4691 | 0.00 |
| γ7 | -1.7688 | 0.00 |
| γ8 | 0.8059 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
77016 days
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