V-Lab
First Capital Holdings Plc Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
5,186.29
increased by 14.53
1 Week
5,207.69
increased by 35.93
1 Month
5,375.68
increased by 203.92
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 16, 2026 at 01:38 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 22, 2010 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.2048 | 0.09 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0043 | 4.75*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9826 | 320.48*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0263 | 1.21 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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