Zahrat Al Waha For Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Sunday, July 19th, 2026
1 Day
3,429.96
increased by 69.61
1 Week
3,490.31
increased by 129.96
1 Month
5,943.67
increased by 2,583.32
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 08:45 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 22, 2017 to Jul 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 157 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 228% more after negative returns
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 3.09*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0694 | 12.27*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8473 | 304.12*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1579 | 16.87*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
157 days
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