DB Insurance Co Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
0.66
decreased by 0.02
1 Week
0.69
increased by 0.01
1 Month
0.80
increased by 0.12
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 07:53 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Jul 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 188 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: illiquidity responds almost entirely to negative returns
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0064 | 4.16*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0087 | 2.20** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9529 | 321.59*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0695 | 17.65*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
188 days
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