DB Insurance Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
0.50
decreased by 0.06
1 Week
0.59
increased by 0.03
1 Month
0.68
increased by 0.12
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 07:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Jul 16, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 23 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.5013 | 4.30*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1278 | 9.89*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8423 | 49.47*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -0.2410 | -5.43*** |
| γ2 | 0.4131 | 5.58*** |
| γ3 | -0.2435 | -4.81*** |
| γ4 | 0.1367 | 4.40*** |
| γ5 | -0.0984 | -4.82*** |
| γ6 | 0.0627 | 3.56*** |
| γ7 | -0.0901 | -3.75*** |
Persistence:
0.970
Half-life:
23 days
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