V-Lab
NVIDIA Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, July 30th, 2026
1 Day
0.81
increased by 0.07
1 Week
0.76
increased by 0.02
1 Month
0.70
decreased by 0.04
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 29, 2026 at 09:26 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 22, 1999 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 173286 trading days (~687.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0728 | 7.49*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0923 | 4.61*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9077 | 45.43*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0105 | 0.75 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
173286 days
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