Nuveen Churchill DI LEN Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
4,355.08
decreased by 257.96
1 Week
4,888.10
increased by 275.06
1 Month
3,943.91
decreased by 669.13
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 11:34 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 25, 2024 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 69 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.990, shock half-life ~69 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9495 | 5.29*** |
| αARCH | 0.1086 | 5.31*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8814 | 40.98*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.2136 | -0.97 |
0.990
Persistence69d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9495 | 5.29*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1086 | 5.31*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8814 | 40.98*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.2136 | -0.97 |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
69 days
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