V-Lab
Nuveen Churchill DI LEN Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
5,589.15
decreased by 598.63
1 Week
5,980.38
decreased by 207.40
1 Month
6,207.44
increased by 19.66
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:46 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 25, 2024 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 79 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9607 | 5.28*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1131 | 5.14*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8782 | 38.66*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.1223 | -0.39 |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
79 days
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