V-Lab
Murphy USA Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
120.74
increased by 10.60
1 Week
118.87
increased by 8.73
1 Month
110.90
increased by 0.76
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 19, 2013 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 201 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9668 | 6.76*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0525 | 8.21*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9441 | 142.20*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0316 | -3.75*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
201 days
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