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V-Lab

Murphy USA Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Liquidity prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026

1 Day

123.32

decreased by 3.62

1 Week

120.37

decreased by 6.57

1 Month

108.23

decreased by 18.71

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:47 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Murphy USA Inc ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's liquidity

Liquidity Forecast

How liquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 19, 2013 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 205 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9661
6.74***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0527
8.19***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9439
141.30***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0314
-3.56***

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

205 days