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Murphy USA Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026

1 Day

120.74

increased by 10.60

1 Week

118.87

increased by 8.73

1 Month

110.90

increased by 0.76

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:47 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Murphy USA Inc ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 19, 2013 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 201 trading days (~0.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9668
6.76***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0525
8.21***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9441
142.20***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0316
-3.75***

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

201 days