V-Lab
Murphy USA Inc Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
130.98
increased by 2.29
1 Week
123.37
decreased by 5.32
1 Month
114.56
decreased by 14.13
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 10:22 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 19, 2013 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 899 trading days (~3.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 67% more after negative returns
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4585 | 4.99*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0372 | 14.82*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9495 | 645.93*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0251 | 5.34*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
899 days
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