Murphy USA Inc Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
128.68
decreased by 3.99
1 Week
127.42
decreased by 5.25
1 Month
117.75
decreased by 14.92
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 19, 2013 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 729 trading days (~2.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 65% more after negative returns
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5195 | 5.43*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0379 | 14.77*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9489 | 635.99*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0245 | 5.10*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
729 days
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