Murphy USA Inc ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
128.63
1 Week
126.28
1 Month
114.24
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 19, 2013 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 15 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 15 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 31 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0526 | 8.16*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9287 | 259.78*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0512 | -8.69*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.01 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9994 | 817.83*** |
Persistence:
0.956
Half-life:
15 days
Other Murphy USA Inc Analyses
Other ILLIQ-MFMEM Analyses on Equities