Monolithic Power Systems Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026
1 Day
25.19
decreased by 0.50
1 Week
24.45
decreased by 1.24
1 Month
23.87
decreased by 1.82
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 12:30 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 19, 2004 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 74 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~74 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2345 | 8.28*** |
| αARCH | 0.0899 | 12.48*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9008 | 116.39*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0079 | -4.54*** |
0.991
Persistence74d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2345 | 8.28*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0899 | 12.48*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9008 | 116.39*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0079 | -4.54*** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
74 days
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