Malaysian Pacific Indus Bhd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
1,976.73
decreased by 266.05
1 Week
2,873.60
increased by 630.82
1 Month
3,854.54
increased by 1,611.76
Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 25, 2026 at 06:59 AM UTC
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How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 24, 1994 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1564 trading days (~6.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~1564 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.8542 | 3.58*** |
| αARCH | 0.2079 | 11.67*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7916 | 44.46*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.6022 | -3.15*** |
| γ2 | 0.8999 | 3.49*** |
| γ3 | -0.3183 | -1.95* |
| γ4 | 0.0881 | 0.52 |
| γ5 | -1.5337 | -2.30** |
| γ6 | 4.3168 | 2.40** |
| γ7 | -5.0477 | -2.39** |
| γ8 | 3.1531 | 2.36** |
| γ9 | -1.2332 | -1.96* |
| γ10 | 0.1000 | 0.29 |
1.000
Persistence1564d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.8542 | 3.58*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2079 | 11.67*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7916 | 44.46*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.6022 | -3.15*** |
| γ2 | 0.8999 | 3.49*** |
| γ3 | -0.3183 | -1.95* |
| γ4 | 0.0881 | 0.52 |
| γ5 | -1.5337 | -2.30** |
| γ6 | 4.3168 | 2.40** |
| γ7 | -5.0477 | -2.39** |
| γ8 | 3.1531 | 2.36** |
| γ9 | -1.2332 | -1.96* |
| γ10 | 0.1000 | 0.29 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1564 days
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