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Momentum Group Ab Publ Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026

1 Day

4,725.60

decreased by 223.92

1 Week

5,177.19

increased by 227.67

1 Month

6,429.45

increased by 1,479.93

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 08:33 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Momentum Group Ab Publ ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 31, 2022 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 141 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.3751
4.61***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0610
4.10***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9341
62.30***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0425
-0.35

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

141 days