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V-Lab

Mekdam Holding Group W.L.L Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Sunday, August 9th, 2026

1 Day

26,844.74

increased by 5,022.08

1 Week

23,600.57

increased by 1,777.91

1 Month

26,784.42

increased by 4,961.76

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 08:10 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Mekdam Holding Group W.L.L ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 7, 2021 to Aug 6, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 10193 trading days (~40.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2588
2.74***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1693
5.30***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8306
25.81***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.3502
-0.63

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

10193 days