V-Lab
Mekdam Holding Group W.L.L Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Sunday, August 9th, 2026
1 Day
26,844.74
increased by 5,022.08
1 Week
23,600.57
increased by 1,777.91
1 Month
26,784.42
increased by 4,961.76
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 08:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 7, 2021 to Aug 6, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 10193 trading days (~40.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2588 | 2.74*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1693 | 5.30*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8306 | 25.81*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.3502 | -0.63 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
10193 days
Other Mekdam Holding Group W.L.L Analyses
Other Spline ILLIQ Analyses on International Equities