Mekdam Holding Group W.L.L ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026
1 Day
24,367.99
1 Week
26,676.48
1 Month
24,522.16
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 08:02 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 7, 2021 to Jul 9, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 108 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1863 | 34.95*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7995 | 228.76*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0156 | 2.43** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 78,528.6500 |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
108 days
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