V-Lab
Mekdam Holding Group W.L.L ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Sunday, August 30th, 2026
1 Day
87,956.11
1 Week
80,037.68
1 Month
43,709.13
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 28, 2026 at 08:21 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 7, 2021 to Aug 27, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 122 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1905 | 9.19*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8031 | 60.69*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0015 | 0.06 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 77,735.2719 |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
122 days
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