V-Lab
Mekdam Holding Group W.L.L ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Sunday, August 9th, 2026
1 Day
27,802.43
1 Week
24,118.29
1 Month
27,645.48
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 08:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 7, 2021 to Aug 6, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 109 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1851 | 35.46*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8012 | 232.69*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0149 | 2.38** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 77,866.3800 |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
109 days
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