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Mekdam Holding Group W.L.L ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Sunday, August 9th, 2026

1 Day

27,802.43

increased by 5,460.30

1 Week

24,118.29

increased by 1,776.16

1 Month

27,645.48

increased by 5,303.35

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 08:10 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Mekdam Holding Group W.L.L ILLIQ-MFMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 7, 2021 to Aug 6, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 109 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.

μ

ILLIQ-MFMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1851
35.46***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8012
232.69***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0149
2.38**
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

77,866.3800

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

109 days