V-Lab
Methode Electronics Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
5,941.72
decreased by 384.94
1 Week
6,481.61
increased by 154.95
1 Month
5,084.33
decreased by 1,242.33
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 10, 2026 at 09:48 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 186 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.5182 | 5.56*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1024 | 16.24*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8939 | 130.87*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -0.1543 | -4.63*** |
| γ2 | 0.3245 | 4.55*** |
| γ3 | -0.2358 | -4.08*** |
| γ4 | 0.0853 | 2.88*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
186 days
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