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Medco Energi Intl Tbk Pt Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026

1 Day

0.27

decreased by 0.05

1 Week

0.32

decreased by 0.00

1 Month

0.35

increased by 0.03

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 08:44 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Medco Energi Intl Tbk Pt ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 20, 1995 to Aug 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 86643 trading days (~343.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

31.0330
0.00
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2622
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7378
0.01
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-1.1105
-0.18
γ21.9309
0.13
γ3-1.8437
-0.08
γ41.9138
0.09
γ5-1.1386
-0.35
γ60.3904
0.08
γ7-0.6400
-0.69
γ80.4023
0.01
γ91.2587
0.01
γ10-2.3782
-0.02

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

86643 days