V-Lab
Medco Energi Intl Tbk Pt Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
0.39
increased by 0.05
1 Week
0.40
increased by 0.06
1 Month
0.41
increased by 0.07
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 08:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 20, 1995 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 562 trading days (~2.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3272 | 3.81*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2293 | 8.65*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7694 | 29.32*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -1.0212 | -4.15*** |
| γ2 | 1.7993 | 4.47*** |
| γ3 | -2.7143 | -6.24*** |
| γ4 | 4.5833 | 7.17*** |
| γ5 | -3.6763 | -6.67*** |
| γ6 | 0.7924 | 2.83*** |
| γ7 | 0.3964 | 2.77*** |
| γ8 | -0.2352 | -2.33** |
| γ9 | 0.1814 | 1.26 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
562 days
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