Medco Energi Intl Tbk Pt Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
0.39
increased by 0.01
1 Week
0.45
increased by 0.07
1 Month
0.41
increased by 0.03
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 09:15 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 20, 1995 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 565 trading days (~2.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3151 | 3.82*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2293 | 8.64*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7694 | 29.30*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -1.0277 | -4.15*** |
| γ2 | 1.8084 | 4.48*** |
| γ3 | -2.7038 | -6.24*** |
| γ4 | 4.5448 | 7.19*** |
| γ5 | -3.6438 | -6.70*** |
| γ6 | 0.7921 | 2.88*** |
| γ7 | 0.3858 | 2.74*** |
| γ8 | -0.2293 | -2.27** |
| γ9 | 0.1772 | 1.23 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
565 days
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