V-Lab
Medco Energi Intl Tbk Pt Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
0.27
decreased by 0.05
1 Week
0.32
decreased by 0.00
1 Month
0.35
increased by 0.03
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 08:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 20, 1995 to Aug 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 86643 trading days (~343.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 31.0330 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2622 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7378 | 0.01 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -1.1105 | -0.18 |
| γ2 | 1.9309 | 0.13 |
| γ3 | -1.8437 | -0.08 |
| γ4 | 1.9138 | 0.09 |
| γ5 | -1.1386 | -0.35 |
| γ6 | 0.3904 | 0.08 |
| γ7 | -0.6400 | -0.69 |
| γ8 | 0.4023 | 0.01 |
| γ9 | 1.2587 | 0.01 |
| γ10 | -2.3782 | -0.02 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
86643 days
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